General election forecast
Doncaster North
Predicted winner: Labour with 36.7% of the vote, a 17.9pp margin over Conservative.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Ed Miliband
- Party: Labour Party
- Tenure: 2.1 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Miliband | Labour Party | 16,231 | 52.4% |
| Glenn Bluff | Conservative and Unionist Party | 7,105 | 22.9% |
| David Bettney | Social Democratic Party | 1,960 | 6.3% |
| Tony Nicholson | Green Party | 1,778 | 5.7% |
| Frank Lloyd Calladine | British Democratic Party | 1,160 | 3.7% |
| Christopher Dawson | Yorkshire Party | 1,059 | 3.4% |
| Jonathan Harston | Lib Dem | 1,045 | 3.4% |
| Catherine Briggs | Party Of Women | 452 | 1.5% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Doncaster North, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Doncaster North
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 yorkshire prior at weight 5%
- English-identity floor. English 37.7% → Reform +2.0pp
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%