UK Elections Contest data. Forecasts. Backtests.

General election forecast

East Londonderry

Predicted winner: DUP with 27.9% of the vote, a 0.4pp margin over Sinn Féin.

northern ireland · northern ireland

Predicted vote share

How the model expects this constituency to vote

DUP
27.9% +27.9pp
Sinn Féin
27.4% -0.0pp
SDLP
12.7% +12.7pp
TUV
10.6% +0.0pp
Alliance
9.0% +9.0pp
UUP
8.3% +8.3pp
Aontú
2.5% -0.0pp
Green Party
1.1% +0.0pp
Conservative
0.4% +0.4pp
Reform UK
0.1% +0.1pp
SNP
0.0% 0.0pp
Plaid Cymru
0.0% 0.0pp
Lib Dem
0.0% 0.0pp
Labour
0.0% 0.0pp
Other
0.0% 0.0pp

Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.

Sitting MP

Gregory Campbell

See also: TheyWorkForYou

2024 general election result

What happened on 4 July 2024

CandidatePartyVotesShare
Gregory Campbell Democratic Unionist Party - D.U.P. 11,506 27.9%
Kathleen McGurk Sinn Féin 11,327 27.4%
Cara Hunter SDLP (Social Democratic & Labour Party) 5,260 12.7%
Allister Kyle TUV 4,363 10.6%
Richard Stewart Alliance - Alliance Party of Northern Ireland 3,734 9.0%
Glen Miller Ulster Unionist Party 3,412 8.3%
Gemma Brolly Aontú 1,043 2.5%
Jen McCahon Green Party 445 1.1%

Source: Returning officer declaration

How accurate is the model here?

Our 2024 backtest for this constituency

We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for East Londonderry, and what actually happened.

✓ Winner called correctly , predicted Democratic Unionist Party - D.U.P., actual Democratic Unionist Party - D.U.P.. Major-party MAE: 1.67pp, the average gap between our predicted vote share and the actual share, per major party.

Predicted

Democratic Unionist Party - D.U.P.
39.1%
Sinn Féin
16.6%
SDLP (Social Democratic & Labour Party)
16.1%
TUV
0.0%
Alliance - Alliance Party of Northern Ireland
8.4%
Ulster Unionist Party
8.4%
Aontú
3.5%
Green Party
2.6%
Reform UK
4.4%

Actual on 4 July 2024

Democratic Unionist Party - D.U.P.
27.9% +11.3pp
Sinn Féin
27.4% -10.8pp
SDLP (Social Democratic & Labour Party)
12.7% +3.3pp
TUV
10.6% -10.6pp
Alliance - Alliance Party of Northern Ireland
9.0% -0.6pp
Ulster Unionist Party
8.3% +0.1pp
Aontú
2.5% +1.0pp
Green Party
1.1% +1.5pp
Reform UK
0.0% +4.4pp

Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.

How this forecast was built
  1. GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in East Londonderry
  2. National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
  3. Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%

Read the full general election methodology →