General election forecast
Finchley and Golders Green
Predicted winner: Labour with 28.2% of the vote, a 1.4pp margin over Conservative.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Sarah Sackman
- Party: Labour Party
- Tenure: 1.9 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Sackman | Labour Party | 21,857 | 44.3% |
| Alexander John Cameron Deane | Conservative and Unionist Party | 17,276 | 35.1% |
| Sarah Hoyle | Lib Dem | 3,375 | 6.8% |
| Steve Parsons | Green Party | 3,107 | 6.3% |
| Giuseppe Pezzulli | Reform UK | 2,598 | 5.3% |
| Brendan Patrick Donnelly | Rejoin EU | 486 | 1.0% |
| Katharine Margaret Murphy | Party Of Women | 318 | 0.6% |
| Michael Shad | Independent | 272 | 0.6% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Finchley and Golders Green, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Finchley and Golders Green
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 london prior at weight 5%
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%