General election forecast
Glasgow North
Predicted winner: Labour with 30.7% of the vote, a 0.1pp margin over SNP.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Martin Rhodes
- Party: Labour Party
- Tenure: 2.1 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Rhodes | Labour Party | 14,655 | 42.2% |
| Alison Thewliss | Scottish National Party (SNP) | 11,116 | 32.0% |
| Iris Duane | Scottish Green Party | 4,233 | 12.2% |
| Helen Burns | Reform UK | 1,655 | 4.8% |
| Naveed Asghar | Conservative and Unionist Party | 1,366 | 3.9% |
| Daniel Khan-O'Malley | Lib Dem | 1,142 | 3.3% |
| Nick Durie | Alba Party | 572 | 1.6% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Glasgow North, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Glasgow North
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 scotland prior at weight 5%
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%