General election forecast
Glasgow South
Predicted winner: SNP with 30.6% of the vote, a 0.2pp margin over Labour.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Gordon McKee
- Party: Labour Party
- Tenure: 2.1 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon McKee | Labour Party | 17,696 | 41.8% |
| Stewart McDonald | Scottish National Party (SNP) | 13,542 | 32.0% |
| Niall Christie | Scottish Green Party | 5,554 | 13.1% |
| Danny Raja | Reform UK | 1,736 | 4.1% |
| Haroun Malik | Conservative and Unionist Party | 1,617 | 3.8% |
| Peter Michael McLaughlin | Lib Dem | 1,316 | 3.1% |
| Brian Smith | Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition | 473 | 1.1% |
| Dhruva Kumar | Alba Party | 444 | 1.0% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Glasgow South, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Glasgow South
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 scotland prior at weight 5%
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%