General election forecast
Godalming and Ash
Predicted winner: Lib Dem with 35.1% of the vote, a 0.1pp margin over Conservative.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Jeremy Hunt
- Party: Conservative and Unionist Party
- Tenure: 2.1 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Hunt | Conservative and Unionist Party | 23,293 | 42.6% |
| Paul David Follows | Lib Dem | 22,402 | 41.0% |
| Graham Richard Drage | Reform UK | 4,815 | 8.8% |
| James Walsh | Labour Party | 2,748 | 5.0% |
| Ruby Tucker | Green Party | 1,243 | 2.3% |
| Harriet Williams | Women's Equality Party | 195 | 0.4% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Godalming and Ash, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Godalming and Ash
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 south_east prior at weight 5%
- English-identity floor. English 30.9% → Reform +2.0pp
- Age-structure adjustment. 65+ 21.8% → Reform +0.20pp, Con +0.08pp (BES-dampened)
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%