General election forecast
Hexham
Predicted winner: Conservative with 32.3% of the vote, a 0.2pp margin over Labour.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Joe Morris
- Party: Labour Party
- Tenure: 2.1 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Morris | Labour Party | 23,988 | 46.3% |
| Guy Opperman | Conservative and Unionist Party | 20,275 | 39.1% |
| Nick Morphet | Green Party | 2,467 | 4.8% |
| Nick Cott | Lib Dem | 2,376 | 4.6% |
| Chris Whaley | Independent | 1,511 | 2.9% |
| William Clouston | Social Democratic Party | 1,211 | 2.3% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Hexham, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Hexham
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 north_east prior at weight 5%
- English-identity floor. English 31.5% → Reform +2.0pp
- Age-structure adjustment. 65+ 27.0% → Reform +0.40pp, Con +0.20pp (BES-dampened)
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%