General election forecast
Islington North
Predicted winner: Independent with 47.3% of the vote, a 24.5pp margin over Labour.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Jeremy Corbyn
- Party: Independent
- Tenure: 1.9 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Corbyn | Independent | 24,120 | 49.2% |
| Praful Nargund | Labour Party | 16,873 | 34.4% |
| Sheridan Virginia Kates | Green Party | 2,660 | 5.4% |
| Karen Anne Harries | Conservative and Unionist Party | 1,950 | 4.0% |
| Martyn Nelson | Reform UK | 1,710 | 3.5% |
| Vikas Aggarwal | Lib Dem | 1,661 | 3.4% |
| Paul Dominic Josling | Independent | 32 | 0.1% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Islington North, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Islington North
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 london prior at weight 5%
- Incumbency / Retirement. Independent: standing again, 1.9yr tenure → 1.0pp
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%