General election forecast
Jarrow and Gateshead East
Predicted winner: Reform UK with 36.5% of the vote, a 0.6pp margin over Labour.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Kate Osborne
- Party: Labour Party
- Tenure: 2.1 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kate Osborne | Labour Party | 18,856 | 51.3% |
| Lynda Alexander | Reform UK | 9,892 | 26.9% |
| Jack Alexander Gebhard | Conservative and Unionist Party | 3,354 | 9.1% |
| Nic Cook | Green Party | 2,384 | 6.5% |
| Jamie Rickelton | Lib Dem | 1,740 | 4.7% |
| Mark Conway | Alliance for Democracy and Freedom | 502 | 1.4% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Jarrow and Gateshead East, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Jarrow and Gateshead East
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 north_east prior at weight 5%
- English-identity floor. English 34.8% → Reform +2.0pp
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%