General election forecast
Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice
Predicted winner: Reform UK with 33.4% of the vote, a 0.6pp margin over Labour.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Emma Hardy
- Party: Labour Party
- Tenure: 2.1 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Hardy | Labour Party | 17,875 | 46.8% |
| Julie Peck | Reform UK | 8,896 | 23.3% |
| Rachel Storer | Conservative and Unionist Party | 6,924 | 18.1% |
| Linda Jane Johnson | Lib Dem | 2,625 | 6.9% |
| Kevin Scott Paulson | Green Party | 1,748 | 4.6% |
| Lucy Needham | Social Democratic Party | 110 | 0.3% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 yorkshire prior at weight 5%
- English-identity floor. English 35.4% → Reform +2.0pp
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%