General election forecast
Kingswinford and South Staffordshire
Predicted winner: Reform UK with 32.8% of the vote, a 0.5pp margin over Conservative.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Mike Wood
- Party: Conservative and Unionist Party
- Tenure: 2.1 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wood | Conservative and Unionist Party | 18,199 | 40.3% |
| Sally Benton | Labour Party | 11,896 | 26.3% |
| Gary Andrew Dale | Reform UK | 9,928 | 22.0% |
| Gulvinder Singh Bansal | Lib Dem | 2,080 | 4.6% |
| Claire McIlvenna | Green Party | 2,077 | 4.6% |
| Shaz Saleem | Independent | 1,000 | 2.2% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Kingswinford and South Staffordshire, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Kingswinford and South Staffordshire
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 west_midlands prior at weight 5%
- English-identity floor. English 44.6% → Reform +3.0pp
- Age-structure adjustment. 65+ 26.8% → Reform +0.40pp, Con +0.20pp (BES-dampened)
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%