General election forecast
Manchester Rusholme
Predicted winner: Labour with 32.6% of the vote, a 3.3pp margin over Green Party.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Afzal Khan
- Party: Labour Party
- Tenure: 1.9 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Afzal Khan | Labour Party | 15,054 | 51.9% |
| Thirza Amina Asanga-Rae | Green Party | 6,819 | 23.5% |
| Mohhamed Bilal | Workers Party | 3,660 | 12.6% |
| Alexandra Marsanu | Conservative and Unionist Party | 1,678 | 5.8% |
| Joel Patrick McGuigan | Reform UK | 1,313 | 4.5% |
| Faraz Bhatti | Independent | 342 | 1.2% |
| Peter Clifford | Communist League Election Campaign | 167 | 0.6% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Manchester Rusholme, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Manchester Rusholme
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 north_west prior at weight 5%
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%