General election forecast
Mid and South Pembrokeshire
Predicted winner: Conservative with 26.3% of the vote, a 0.7pp margin over Labour.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Henry Tufnell
- Party: Labour Party
- Tenure: 2.1 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Tufnell | Labour Party | 16,505 | 35.4% |
| Stephen Crabb | Conservative and Unionist Party | 14,627 | 31.4% |
| Stuart Marchant | Reform UK | 7,828 | 16.8% |
| Cris Tomos | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | 2,962 | 6.4% |
| Alistair Ronald Cameron | Lib Dem | 2,372 | 5.1% |
| James Henry Purchase | Green Party | 1,654 | 3.5% |
| Vusi Siphika | Independent | 427 | 0.9% |
| Hanna Andersen | Women's Equality Party | 254 | 0.5% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Mid and South Pembrokeshire, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Mid and South Pembrokeshire
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 wales prior at weight 5%
- Age-structure adjustment. 65+ 25.6% → Reform +0.40pp, Con +0.20pp (BES-dampened)
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%