General election forecast
North Northumberland
Predicted winner: Reform UK with 26.0% of the vote, a 0.1pp margin over Labour.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
David Smith
- Party: Labour Party
- Tenure: 2.1 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Smith | Labour Party | 17,855 | 36.6% |
| Anne-Marie Belinda Trevelyan | Conservative and Unionist Party | 12,788 | 26.2% |
| Katherine Ann Hales | Reform UK | 7,688 | 15.7% |
| Natalie Younes | Lib Dem | 5,169 | 10.6% |
| Georgina Emma Rowley Hill | Independent | 3,220 | 6.6% |
| Jan Rosen | Green Party | 1,743 | 3.6% |
| Michael Anthony Joyce | Independent | 288 | 0.6% |
| Andrew Martin | Social Democratic Party | 92 | 0.2% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for North Northumberland, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in North Northumberland
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 north_east prior at weight 5%
- English-identity floor. English 31.8% → Reform +2.0pp
- Age-structure adjustment. 65+ 28.9% → Reform +0.40pp, Con +0.20pp (BES-dampened)
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%