UK Elections Contest data. Forecasts. Backtests.
Location map of North Shropshire on the UK map

General election forecast

North Shropshire

Predicted winner: Lib Dem with 51.3% of the vote, a 28.7pp margin over Reform UK.

england · west midlands

Predicted vote share

How the model expects this constituency to vote

Lib Dem
51.3% -1.6pp
Reform UK
22.5% +7.0pp
Conservative
16.6% +16.6pp
Green Party
4.6% +2.1pp
Labour
4.4% +4.4pp
SNP
0.3% +0.3pp
Independent
0.2% -0.1pp
Plaid Cymru
0.1% +0.1pp
Other
0.0% 0.0pp

Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.

Sitting MP

Helen Morgan

See also: TheyWorkForYou

2024 general election result

What happened on 4 July 2024

CandidatePartyVotesShare
Helen Morgan Lib Dem 26,214 52.9%
Simon Baynes Conservative and Unionist Party 10,903 22.0%
Mark Whittle Reform UK 7,687 15.5%
Natalie Rowley Labour Party 3,423 6.9%
Craig Emery Green Party 1,234 2.5%
Samuel Cladingbowl Independent 133 0.3%

Source: Returning officer declaration

How accurate is the model here?

Our 2024 backtest for this constituency

We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for North Shropshire, and what actually happened.

✗ Winner missed , predicted Conservative, actual Lib Dem. Major-party MAE: 16.48pp, the average gap between our predicted vote share and the actual share, per major party.

Predicted

Lib Dem
9.6%
Conservative
37.8%
Reform UK
19.3%
Labour
21.5%
Green Party
7.3%
Independent
2.1%
Workers Party
0.9%

Actual on 4 July 2024

Lib Dem
52.9% -43.3pp
Conservative
22.0% +15.8pp
Reform UK
15.5% +3.8pp
Labour
6.9% +14.6pp
Green Party
2.5% +4.9pp
Independent
0.3% +1.8pp
Workers Party
0.0% +0.9pp

Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.

How this forecast was built
  1. GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in North Shropshire
  2. National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
  3. BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 west_midlands prior at weight 5%
  4. Incumbency / Retirement. Liberal Democrats: standing again, 1.9yr tenure → 1.0pp
  5. English-identity floor. English 32.7% → Reform +2.0pp
  6. Age-structure adjustment. 65+ 24.7% → Reform +0.20pp, Con +0.08pp (BES-dampened)
  7. Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%

Read the full general election methodology →