General election forecast
Old Bexley and Sidcup
Predicted winner: Reform UK with 30.9% of the vote, a 0.4pp margin over Conservative.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Louie French
- Party: Conservative and Unionist Party
- Tenure: 2.1 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louie French | Conservative and Unionist Party | 17,910 | 37.6% |
| Edward Jones | Labour Party | 14,362 | 30.2% |
| Maxine Patricia Fothergill | Reform UK | 10,384 | 21.8% |
| Brad Davies | Green Party | 2,601 | 5.5% |
| Adrian Hyyrylainen-Trett | Lib Dem | 1,927 | 4.0% |
| Laurent Williams | Rejoin EU | 251 | 0.5% |
| Andrew Still | Independent | 198 | 0.4% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Old Bexley and Sidcup, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Old Bexley and Sidcup
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 london prior at weight 5%
- English-identity floor. English 34.7% → Reform +2.0pp
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%