General election forecast

Penrith and Solway

Predicted winner: Labour with 27.4% of the vote, a 0.5pp margin over Reform UK.

england

Predicted vote share

How the model expects this constituency to vote

Labour

27.4% +27.4pp

Reform UK

27.0% +11.5pp

Conservative

25.3% +25.3pp

Lib Dem

8.1% -1.5pp

Green Party

7.5% +4.0pp

Restore

3.3% +3.3pp

Independent

0.6% +0.2pp

Social Democratic Party

0.3% -0.0pp

SNP

0.3% +0.3pp

Plaid Cymru

0.2% +0.2pp

Other

0.0% 0.0pp

Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.

Sitting MP

Markus Campbell-Savours

Party: Labour Party
Tenure: 2.1 years (since 2024-07-04)
Status: standing again

What happened on 4 July 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Markus Campbell-Savours	Labour Party	19,986	40.6%
Mark Jenkinson	Conservative and Unionist Party	14,729	29.9%
Matthew Moody	Reform UK	7,624	15.5%
Julia Aglionby	Lib Dem	4,742	9.6%
Susan Denham-Smith	Green Party	1,730	3.5%
Chris Johnston	Independent	195	0.4%
Shaun Long	Social Democratic Party	156	0.3%
Roy Ivinson	Independent	119	0.2%

Source: Returning officer declaration

How accurate is the model here?

Our 2024 backtest for this constituency

We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Penrith and Solway, and what actually happened.

✗ Winner missed , predicted Conservative, actual Labour. Major-party MAE: 4.66pp, the average gap between our predicted vote share and the actual share, per major party.

Predicted

Labour

29.1%

Conservative

32.8%

Reform UK

19.1%

Lib Dem

7.6%

Green Party

6.7%

Independent

1.2%

Other

0.9%

Workers Party

0.8%

Cumbria First

0.8%

Actual on 4 July 2024

Labour

40.6% -11.4pp

Conservative

29.9% +2.9pp

Reform UK

15.5% +3.7pp

Lib Dem

9.6% -2.0pp

Green Party

3.5% +3.2pp

Independent

0.6% +0.6pp

Other

0.0% +0.9pp

Workers Party

0.0% +0.8pp

Cumbria First

0.0% +0.8pp

Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.

How this forecast was built

GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Penrith and Solway
National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
English-identity floor. English 35.0% → Reform +2.0pp
Age-structure adjustment. 65+ 25.8% → Reform +1.00pp, Con +0.50pp
Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%

Read the full general election methodology →