General election forecast
Poole
Predicted winner: Reform UK with 26.4% of the vote, a 0.5pp margin over Conservative.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Neil Duncan-Jordan
- Party: Labour Party
- Tenure: 2.1 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: suspended
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Duncan-Jordan | Labour Party | 14,168 | 31.8% |
| Robert Syms | Conservative and Unionist Party | 14,150 | 31.8% |
| Andrei Silviu Dragotoniu | Reform UK | 7,429 | 16.7% |
| Oliver John Walters | Lib Dem | 5,507 | 12.4% |
| Sarah Catherine Ward | Green Party | 2,218 | 5.0% |
| Joe Cronin | Independent | 698 | 1.6% |
| Leanne Barnes | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 325 | 0.7% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Poole, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Poole
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 south_west prior at weight 5%
- English-identity floor. English 33.5% → Reform +2.0pp
- Age-structure adjustment. 65+ 23.1% → Reform +0.20pp, Con +0.08pp (BES-dampened)
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%