General election forecast
Romford
Predicted winner: Reform UK with 29.9% of the vote, a 0.4pp margin over Conservative.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Andrew Rosindell
- Party: Reform UK
- Tenure: 0.6 years (since 2026-01-18)
- Status: defected
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Rosindell | Conservative and Unionist Party | 15,339 | 34.8% |
| Andrew Achilleos | Labour Party | 13,876 | 31.5% |
| Philip Joseph Hyde | Reform UK | 9,624 | 21.8% |
| David Hughes | Green Party | 2,220 | 5.0% |
| Thomas Patrick Clarke | Lib Dem | 1,895 | 4.3% |
| Zhafaran Qayum | Workers Party | 898 | 2.0% |
| Colin Birch | English Constitution Party | 195 | 0.4% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Romford, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Romford
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 london prior at weight 5%
- Incumbency / Retirement. Reform UK: defected, treated as open seat → -1.5pp
- English-identity floor. English 30.5% → Reform +2.0pp
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%