General election forecast
Wigan
Predicted winner: Reform UK with 33.5% of the vote, a 0.3pp margin over Labour.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Lisa Nandy
- Party: Labour Party
- Tenure: 2.1 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lisa Nandy | Labour Party | 19,401 | 47.4% |
| Andy Dawber | Reform UK | 9,852 | 24.1% |
| Henry James Mitson | Conservative and Unionist Party | 4,310 | 10.5% |
| Maureen O'Bern | Independent | 3,522 | 8.6% |
| Brian Crombie-Fisher | Lib Dem | 1,692 | 4.1% |
| Jane Leicester | Green Party | 1,629 | 4.0% |
| Jan Cunliffe | Independent | 406 | 1.0% |
| The Zok | Independent | 87 | 0.2% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Wigan, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Wigan
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 north_west prior at weight 5%
- English-identity floor. English 36.2% → Reform +2.0pp
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%