Council · Unitary authority

Portsmouth

No overall control. Liberal Democrats largest party after May 7 2026. (Remained no overall control, previously ncc)

What happened on May 7

Seats won and overall control

After May 7

No overall control. Liberal Democrats largest party

Council size: 42 seats · 14 up on May 7

Reform UK

5 of 42 seats

Won 5 on May 7 · had 0 before

Next election

May 2030

Whole council every 4 years.

Post-May 7 composition

Lib Dem

Independent / Other

Labour

Reform UK

Conservative

Pre-May-7 composition is the latest OCD snapshot of who held each seat; post is pre minus seats up plus actual winners.

How accurate was the model here?

50% 7 / 14 winners called correctly across this council's wards

7.29pp major-party MAE, average gap between predicted and actual share

+6.47pp Reform UK signed bias, positive = predicted hot, negative = predicted cold

Locked, sha256-witnessed forecast scored against the actual count. See the full national accuracy audit →

Our locked May 7 forecast

Reform UK

Lib Dem

Labour

Conservative

This is the seats-on-the-ballot projection we published before polls opened, used here for accuracy comparison only.

All wards

Ward	Our top pick	Actual winner	Predicted share	Confidence
Baffins	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	37.7%	high
Central Southsea	Reform UK	Lib Dem	34.6%	high
Charles Dickens	Reform UK	Reform UK	34.6%	high
Copnor	Reform UK	Reform UK	33.7%	high
Cosham	Labour	Reform UK	42.0%	high
Drayton and Farlington	Conservative	Conservative	40.1%	high
Eastney and Craneswater	Reform UK	Lib Dem	33.8%	high
Fratton	Reform UK	Lib Dem	34.3%	high
Hilsea	Reform UK	Reform UK	33.5%	high
Milton	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	36.8%	high
Nelson	Reform UK	Lib Dem	34.0%	high
Paulsgrove	Reform UK	Reform UK	57.4%	high
St Jude	Reform UK	Lib Dem	34.5%	high
St Thomas	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	34.4%	high