Richmond upon Thames. May 7 2026 result and what's next

What happened on May 7

Seats won and overall control

After May 7

Liberal Democrats majority

Council size: 54 seats · 54 up on May 7

Reform UK

0 of 54 seats

Won 0 on May 7 · had 0 before

Next election

May 2030

Whole council every 4 years (London cycle).

Post-May 7 composition

Lib Dem

54

Pre-May-7 composition is the latest OCD snapshot of who held each seat; post is pre minus seats up plus actual winners.

How accurate was the model here?

89% 16 / 18 winners called correctly across this council's wards

8.89pp major-party MAE, average gap between predicted and actual share

+11.33pp Reform UK signed bias, positive = predicted hot, negative = predicted cold

Locked, sha256-witnessed forecast scored against the actual count. See the full national accuracy audit →

Our locked May 7 forecast

Lib Dem

18

Reform UK

16

Conservative

11

Green Party

5

Labour

4

This is the seats-on-the-ballot projection we published before polls opened, used here for accuracy comparison only.

All wards

Ward	Our top pick	Actual winner	Predicted share	Confidence
Barnes	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	34.0%	medium
East Sheen	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	34.0%	medium
Fulwell & Hampton Hill	Green Party	Lib Dem	29.9%	medium
Ham, Petersham & Richmond Riverside	Green Party	Lib Dem	31.4%	medium
Hampton	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	39.6%	medium
Hampton North	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	41.1%	medium
Hampton Wick & South Teddington	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	35.3%	medium
Heathfield	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	32.2%	medium
Kew	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	37.9%	medium
Mortlake & Barnes Common	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	28.3%	medium
North Richmond	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	38.6%	medium
South Richmond	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	29.5%	medium
South Twickenham	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	30.7%	medium
St Margarets & North Twickenham	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	38.6%	medium
Teddington	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	53.0%	medium
Twickenham Riverside	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	41.1%	medium
West Twickenham	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	33.9%	medium
Whitton	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	40.0%	medium