After May 7
No overall control. Conservative largest party
Council size: 42 seats · 15 up on May 7
Council · District council
Rugby
No overall control. Conservative largest party after May 7 2026. (Remained no overall control, previously ncc)
What happened on May 7
Seats won and overall control
Reform UK
3 of 42 seats
Won 3 on May 7 · had 0 before
Next election
TBC (Local Government Reorganisation)
Two-tier council under English Local Government Reorganisation. Next election date awaiting Statutory Instrument.
Post-May 7 composition
Every party's seat count on the new council
Pre-May-7 composition is the latest OCD snapshot of who held each seat; post is pre minus seats up plus actual winners.
Local Government Reorganisation
Why we don't yet know when Rugby next votes
Rugby sits in a two-tier county area under review for Local Government Reorganisation following the English Devolution White Paper (December 2024). The county council and its districts are expected to be replaced by one or more new unitary authorities. Until the Statutory Instrument is laid, the next election date is not in our gift to guess.
We'll flip this page from TBC to a confirmed date the moment the SI publishes.
How accurate was the model here?
Our 7 May 2026 forecast for Rugby
Locked, sha256-witnessed forecast scored against the actual count. See the full national accuracy audit →
Our locked May 7 forecast
The pre-election prediction
This is the seats-on-the-ballot projection we published before polls opened, used here for accuracy comparison only.
All wards
Per-ward forecast vs actual
| Ward | Our top pick | Actual winner | Predicted share | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Admirals and Cawston | Labour | Reform UK | 35.3% | high |
| Benn | Labour | Labour | 38.7% | high |
| Bilton | Conservative | Lib Dem | 32.5% | high |
| Coton and Boughton | Labour | Reform UK | 40.3% | high |
| Dunsmore | Reform UK | Lib Dem | 29.0% | high |
| Eastlands | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | 33.2% | high |
| Hillmorton | Reform UK | Conservative | 29.7% | high |
| New Bilton | Reform UK | Labour | 33.4% | high |
| Newbold and Brownsover | Labour | Reform UK | 35.1% | high |
| Paddox | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | 39.3% | high |
| Revel and Binley Woods | Conservative | Conservative | 43.2% | high |
| Rokeby and Overslade | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | 34.0% | high |
| Wolston and the Lawfords | Conservative | Conservative | 42.6% | high |
| Wolvey and Shilton | Conservative | Conservative | 47.8% | high |