Local council · Rushmoor
Wellington
1 seat contested on Thursday 7 May 2026. 4 candidates from 4 parties.
Neighbours shaded by Reform UK share vs this ward, red = higher, blue = lower.
Predicted vote share
What the model expects
Predictions are point estimates: the model's best guess, not a guarantee. The "How this prediction was made" section below lists every step that shaped this forecast.
How accurate was the model here?
Our 7 May 2026 forecast for Wellington
| Party | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 26.8% | 27.7% | -0.9pp |
| Labour | 32.5% | 33.3% | -0.8pp |
| Conservative | 40.2% | 23.5% | +16.7pp |
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full Rushmoor accuracy summary or the national audit.
Recent contests
What happened last time
| Date | Type | Winner | Top share | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-02 | Cycle | Labour Party | 57.4% | declaration |
| 2023-05-04 | Cycle | Labour Party | 56.5% | declaration |
| 2022-05-05 | Cycle | Labour Party | 56.4% | declaration |
| 2021-05-06 | Cycle | Conservative and Unionist Party | 54.9% | declaration |
| 2019-05-02 | Cycle | Conservative and Unionist Party | 46.9% | declaration |
Candidates 2026
Parties on the ballot
- Conservative and Unionist Party
- Independent
- Labour Party
- Reform UK
How this area looks demographically
Figures are for Rushmoor as a whole. The same local-authority figures are used for every ward in the council, finer ward-level demographics will land in a future release.
- White British (projected May 2026): 66.5% (Census 2021: 71.1%)
- Asian heritage (projected May 2026): 16.8% (Census 2021: 14.7%)
- Average area deprivation decile: 6.6 (1 = most deprived, 10 = least)
How this prediction was made
- Baseline . Most recent borough result (2024-05-02)
- BES MRP Prior . Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 south_east prior (weight 15%, n=5565 regional respondents)
- National Swing (STM) . Strong Transition Model: multiplicative bounded swing, dampened by 0.1 for local
- Demographics . 1 demographic factor(s) applied
- Incumbency . No current holder data available
- New Party Entry . Reform UK estimated at 4.4% from GE/LCC proxy + swing
- Normalise . All shares scaled to sum to 100%
- Restrict to ballot . Removed 7 party/parties not standing in 2026 (Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition 3.2pp, Liberal Democrats 3.1pp, Green Party 2.3pp, Restore Britain 0.4pp, SNP 0.0pp, Other 0.0pp, Plaid Cymru 0.0pp). Their share redistributed pro-rata.
- 2025 county-cycle anchor . No 2025 reference available for this council's parent area. Stage 1 uses national polling only.
- Reform realignment uplift (no-anchor councils) . No 2025 parent-county anchor available; demographic-borrow rule applied. Asian 16.8% → base target 29.3% × regional multiplier 0.85 = 24.9%. Reform 4.7% → 24.9% (lift +20.2pp). Other parties scaled pro-rata. Calibration source: Burnley 2026 ward-level Asian%↔Reform% relationship (the 2-tier district that did receive the LCC 2025 anchor).
- National-share calibration . Aggregate-predicted vs national-polled mismatch corrected at strength 0.65. Multipliers: Labour ×0.85, Conservative ×1.02, Reform UK ×1.12, Liberal Democrats ×0.88, Green Party ×1.02, SNP ×1.00, Plaid Cymru ×1.00.