After May 7
No overall control. Labour largest party
Council size: 51 seats · 17 up on May 7
Council · Unitary authority
Southampton
No overall control. Labour largest party after May 7 2026. (Majority lost, previously Labour)
What happened on May 7
Seats won and overall control
Reform UK
8 of 51 seats
Won 8 on May 7 · had 0 before
Next election
May 2030
Whole council every 4 years.
Post-May 7 composition
Every party's seat count on the new council
Pre-May-7 composition is the latest OCD snapshot of who held each seat; post is pre minus seats up plus actual winners.
How accurate was the model here?
Our 7 May 2026 forecast for Southampton
Locked, sha256-witnessed forecast scored against the actual count. See the full national accuracy audit →
Our locked May 7 forecast
The pre-election prediction
This is the seats-on-the-ballot projection we published before polls opened, used here for accuracy comparison only.
All wards
Per-ward forecast vs actual
| Ward | Our top pick | Actual winner | Predicted share | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banister & Polygon | Reform UK | Green Party | 32.0% | medium |
| Bargate | Reform UK | Green Party | 32.1% | high |
| Bassett | Reform UK | Lib Dem | 31.1% | high |
| Bevois | Reform UK | Labour | 31.7% | high |
| Bitterne Park | Reform UK | Labour | 31.6% | high |
| Coxford | Reform UK | Reform UK | 31.3% | high |
| Freemantle | Reform UK | Green Party | 31.9% | high |
| Harefield | Reform UK | Reform UK | 31.3% | high |
| Millbrook | Reform UK | Reform UK | 31.2% | high |
| Peartree | Reform UK | Reform UK | 31.5% | high |
| Portswood | Reform UK | Green Party | 31.2% | high |
| Redbridge | Reform UK | Reform UK | 31.7% | high |
| Shirley | Reform UK | Lib Dem | 31.9% | high |
| Sholing | Reform UK | Reform UK | 31.5% | high |
| Swaythling | Reform UK | Lib Dem | 31.5% | high |
| Thornhill | Reform UK | Reform UK | 32.1% | medium |
| Woolston | Reform UK | Reform UK | 31.7% | high |