After May 7
Reform UK majority
Council size: 49 seats · 49 up on May 7
Council · Unitary authority
Thurrock
Reform UK majority after May 7 2026. (Majority gained, previously Labour)
What happened on May 7
Seats won and overall control
Reform UK
45 of 49 seats
Won 45 on May 7 · had 3 before · majority
Next election
May 2030
Whole council every 4 years.
Post-May 7 composition
Every party's seat count on the new council
Pre-May-7 composition is the latest OCD snapshot of who held each seat; post is pre minus seats up plus actual winners.
How accurate was the model here?
Our 7 May 2026 forecast for Thurrock
Locked, sha256-witnessed forecast scored against the actual count. See the full national accuracy audit →
Our locked May 7 forecast
The pre-election prediction
This is the seats-on-the-ballot projection we published before polls opened, used here for accuracy comparison only.
All wards
Per-ward forecast vs actual
| Ward | Our top pick | Actual winner | Predicted share | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aveley | Reform UK | Reform UK | 44.6% | low |
| Belhus | Labour | Reform UK | 37.4% | high |
| Chadwell St Mary | Labour | Reform UK | 43.8% | high |
| Chafford Hundred East | Reform UK | Reform UK | 44.6% | low |
| Chafford Hundred West | Reform UK | Reform UK | 44.6% | low |
| Corringham & Fobbing | Reform UK | Reform UK | 44.6% | low |
| East Tilbury, Linford & West Tilbury | Reform UK | Reform UK | 44.0% | low |
| Grays Riverside | Labour | Reform UK | 39.8% | high |
| Grays Town | Reform UK | Reform UK | 44.0% | low |
| Little Thurrock Blackshots | Conservative | Reform UK | 32.7% | high |
| Little Thurrock Rectory | Reform UK | Reform UK | 32.2% | high |
| Ockendon | Reform UK | Reform UK | 50.9% | high |
| Orsett, Horndon & Bulphan | Reform UK | Reform UK | 43.1% | low |
| Purfleet-on-Thames | Reform UK | Labour | 44.6% | low |
| Stanford-le-Hope South | Reform UK | Reform UK | 43.1% | low |
| Stifford | Reform UK | Reform UK | 44.6% | low |
| The Homesteads & Stanford-le-Hope North | Reform UK | Reform UK | 43.1% | low |
| Tilbury Riverside | Reform UK | Reform UK | 44.6% | low |
| Tilbury St Chads | Labour | Reform UK | 50.3% | high |
| West Thurrock & South Stifford | Reform UK | Conservative | 44.6% | low |