Council · London borough

London Borough of Tower Hamlets

No overall control. Independent / Other largest party after May 7 2026. (Majority lost, previously Independent / Other)

What happened on May 7

Seats won and overall control

After May 7

No overall control. Independent / Other largest party

Council size: 45 seats · 45 up on May 7

Reform UK

0 of 45 seats

Won 0 on May 7 · had 0 before

Next election

May 2030

Whole council every 4 years (London cycle).

Post-May 7 composition

Every party's seat count on the new council

Independent / Other
4
Labour
3

Pre-May-7 composition is the latest OCD snapshot of who held each seat; post is pre minus seats up plus actual winners.

How accurate was the model here?

Our 7 May 2026 forecast for London Borough of Tower Hamlets

60% 3 / 5 winners called correctly across this council's wards
6.32pp major-party MAE, average gap between predicted and actual share
+8.83pp Reform UK signed bias, positive = predicted hot, negative = predicted cold

Locked, sha256-witnessed forecast scored against the actual count. See the full national accuracy audit →

Our locked May 7 forecast

The pre-election prediction

Labour
17
Aspire
15
Reform UK
7
Green Party
2
Lib Dem
2
Independent
1
Conservative
1

This is the seats-on-the-ballot projection we published before polls opened, used here for accuracy comparison only.

All wards

Per-ward forecast vs actual

Ward Our top pick Actual winner Predicted share Confidence
Bethnal Green East Labour Aspire 31.1% medium
Bethnal Green West Aspire Not yet declared 26.6% medium
Blackwall & Cubitt Town Labour Not yet declared 21.2% high
Bow East Labour Not yet declared 36.6% high
Bow West Labour Not yet declared 26.0% high
Bromley North Aspire Not yet declared 30.3% high
Bromley South Labour Not yet declared 30.6% high
Canary Wharf Aspire Not yet declared 23.0% high
Island Gardens Labour Not yet declared 20.8% high
Lansbury Aspire Not yet declared 25.8% high
Limehouse Labour Labour 28.8% high
London Borough of Tower Hamlets Labour Aspire 26.5% low
Mile End Labour Not yet declared 31.6% high
Poplar Aspire Aspire 42.1% high
Shadwell Aspire Not yet declared 30.7% high
Spitalfields & Banglatown Aspire Not yet declared 29.1% high
St Dunstan's Labour Not yet declared 29.6% high
St Katharine's & Wapping Labour Labour 26.3% high
Stepney Green Aspire Not yet declared 27.9% high
Weavers Aspire Not yet declared 27.7% high
Whitechapel Labour Not yet declared 24.9% high

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