Wokingham. May 7 2026 result and what's next

What happened on May 7

Seats won and overall control

After May 7

Liberal Democrats majority

Council size: 54 seats · 19 up on May 7

Reform UK

0 of 54 seats

Won 0 on May 7 · had 0 before

Next election

May 2027

By thirds, three years in four.

Post-May 7 composition

Lib Dem

29

Conservative

18

Labour

5

Independent / Other

1

Pre-May-7 composition is the latest OCD snapshot of who held each seat; post is pre minus seats up plus actual winners.

How accurate was the model here?

33% 6 / 18 winners called correctly across this council's wards

7.74pp major-party MAE, average gap between predicted and actual share

+13.12pp Reform UK signed bias, positive = predicted hot, negative = predicted cold

Locked, sha256-witnessed forecast scored against the actual count. See the full national accuracy audit →

Our locked May 7 forecast

Lib Dem

8

Reform UK

6

Conservative

5

This is the seats-on-the-ballot projection we published before polls opened, used here for accuracy comparison only.

All wards

Ward	Our top pick	Actual winner	Predicted share	Confidence
Barkham & Arborfield	Reform UK	Lib Dem	28.4%	medium
Bulmershe & Coronation	Conservative	Conservative	31.7%	medium
Emmbrook	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	35.0%	high
Evendons	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	35.5%	high
Finchampstead	Conservative	Conservative	34.0%	medium
Hawkedon	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	30.5%	high
Hillside	Reform UK	Lib Dem	28.8%	high
Loddon	Conservative	Conservative	30.1%	high
Maiden Erlegh & Whitegates	Reform UK	Lib Dem	28.9%	medium
Norreys	Reform UK	Labour	29.7%	high
Shinfield	Conservative	Conservative	37.5%	medium
South Lake	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	29.3%	high
Spencers Wood & Swallowfield	Reform UK	Lib Dem	28.3%	medium
Thames	Lib Dem	Conservative	29.5%	medium
Twyford, Ruscombe & Hurst	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	39.5%	medium
Wescott	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	28.7%	high
Winnersh	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	33.4%	high
Wokingham Without	Conservative	Lib Dem	32.7%	high