Wolverhampton. May 7 2026 result and what's next

What happened on May 7

Seats won and overall control

After May 7

Labour majority

Council size: 60 seats · 21 up on May 7

Reform UK

13 of 60 seats

Won 12 on May 7 · had 1 before

Next election

May 2027

By thirds, three years in four.

Post-May 7 composition

Labour

35

Reform UK

13

Conservative

10

Independent / Other

2

Pre-May-7 composition is the latest OCD snapshot of who held each seat; post is pre minus seats up plus actual winners.

How accurate was the model here?

50% 10 / 20 winners called correctly across this council's wards

7.90pp major-party MAE, average gap between predicted and actual share

-6.69pp Reform UK signed bias, positive = predicted hot, negative = predicted cold

Locked, sha256-witnessed forecast scored against the actual count. See the full national accuracy audit →

Our locked May 7 forecast

Labour

14

Conservative

6

Reform UK

1

This is the seats-on-the-ballot projection we published before polls opened, used here for accuracy comparison only.

All wards

Ward	Our top pick	Actual winner	Predicted share	Confidence
Bilston North	Reform UK	Reform UK	35.4%	high
Bilston South	Labour	Reform UK	49.4%	medium
Blakenhall	Labour	Labour	47.7%	high
Bushbury North	Conservative	Reform UK	40.2%	high
Bushbury South & Low Hill	Labour	Reform UK	50.8%	medium
East Park	Labour	Reform UK	42.6%	high
Ettingshall North	Labour	Labour	55.8%	medium
Ettingshall South & Spring Vale	Labour	Reform UK	47.9%	medium
Fallings Park	Labour	Reform UK	39.1%	high
Graiseley	Labour	Labour	40.3%	high
Heath Town	Labour	Labour	43.8%	high
Merry Hill	Conservative	Reform UK	32.7%	high
Oxley	Labour	Reform UK	32.3%	high
Park	Labour	Labour	35.6%	high
Penn	Conservative	Conservative	39.9%	high
St Peters	Labour	Labour	38.4%	high
Tettenhall Regis	Conservative	Conservative	40.5%	high
Tettenhall Wightwick	Conservative	Conservative	50.9%	high
Wednesfield North	Labour	Reform UK	43.2%	high
Wednesfield South	Conservative	Reform UK	31.8%	high