After May 7
No overall control. Green Party largest party
Council size: 101 seats · 101 up on May 7
Council · Metropolitan borough
Birmingham
No overall control. Green Party largest party after May 7 2026. (Majority lost, previously Labour)
What happened on May 7
Seats won and overall control
Reform UK
12 of 101 seats
Won 12 on May 7 · had 0 before
Next election
May 2027
By thirds, three years in four.
Post-May 7 composition
Every party's seat count on the new council
Pre-May-7 composition is the latest OCD snapshot of who held each seat; post is pre minus seats up plus actual winners.
How accurate was the model here?
Our 7 May 2026 forecast for Birmingham
Locked, sha256-witnessed forecast scored against the actual count. See the full national accuracy audit →
Our locked May 7 forecast
The pre-election prediction
This is the seats-on-the-ballot projection we published before polls opened, used here for accuracy comparison only.
All wards
Per-ward forecast vs actual
| Ward | Our top pick | Actual winner | Predicted share | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acocks Green | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | 39.3% | high |
| Allens Cross | Conservative | Reform UK | 33.3% | medium |
| Alum Rock | Labour | Independent | 52.1% | medium |
| Aston | Lib Dem | Independent | 41.0% | high |
| Balsall Heath West | Labour | Not yet declared | 36.0% | medium |
| Bartley Green | Conservative | Reform UK | 38.2% | high |
| Billesley | Labour | Green Party | 28.0% | high |
| Birchfield | Labour | Not yet declared | 50.5% | medium |
| Bordesley & Highgate | Labour | Independent | 44.6% | medium |
| Bordesley Green | Labour | Not yet declared | 49.1% | high |
| Bournbrook & Selly Park | Labour | Not yet declared | 30.5% | medium |
| Bournville & Cotteridge | Labour | Not yet declared | 36.8% | medium |
| Brandwood & King's Heath | Labour | Green Party | 32.9% | medium |
| Bromford & Hodge Hill | Labour | Labour | 51.0% | medium |
| Castle Vale | Labour | Labour | 31.4% | medium |
| Druids Heath & Monyhull | Green Party | Green Party | 61.9% | medium |
| Edgbaston | Conservative | Not yet declared | 36.9% | high |
| Erdington | Conservative | Conservative | 40.3% | high |
| Frankley Great Park | Conservative | Reform UK | 41.3% | medium |
| Garretts Green | Labour | Labour | 46.6% | medium |
| Glebe Farm & Tile Cross | Labour | Not yet declared | 41.4% | medium |
| Gravelly Hill | Labour | Labour | 38.2% | medium |
| Hall Green North | Labour | Green Party | 37.8% | medium |
| Hall Green South | Conservative | Conservative | 40.6% | medium |
| Handsworth | Labour | Green Party | 49.9% | medium |
| Handsworth Wood | Labour | Not yet declared | 43.7% | high |
| Harborne | Labour | Independent | 28.7% | high |
| Heartlands | Labour | Not yet declared | 56.0% | medium |
| Highter's Heath | Conservative | Conservative | 46.6% | medium |
| Holyhead | Labour | Independent | 52.2% | medium |
| King's Norton North | Conservative | Not yet declared | 30.9% | medium |
| King's Norton South | Green Party | Not yet declared | 47.6% | medium |
| Kingstanding | Conservative | Reform UK | 35.2% | high |
| Ladywood | Labour | Green Party | 39.8% | high |
| Longbridge & West Heath | Conservative | Not yet declared | 43.5% | medium |
| Lozells | Labour | Not yet declared | 48.1% | medium |
| Moseley | Lib Dem | Not yet declared | 27.9% | medium |
| Nechells | Labour | Independent | 60.6% | high |
| Newtown | Labour | Labour | 44.0% | medium |
| North Edgbaston | Labour | Not yet declared | 41.4% | medium |
| Northfield | Labour | Reform UK | 29.0% | high |
| Oscott | Conservative | Not yet declared | 32.9% | high |
| Perry Barr | Lib Dem | Not yet declared | 40.5% | high |
| Perry Common | Labour | Reform UK | 37.3% | medium |
| Pype Hayes | Conservative | Reform UK | 34.1% | medium |
| Quinton | Conservative | Not yet declared | 31.7% | high |
| Rubery & Rednal | Conservative | Reform UK | 43.0% | medium |
| Shard End | Labour | Reform UK | 37.8% | high |
| Sheldon | Lib Dem | Not yet declared | 40.7% | high |
| Small Heath | Labour | Not yet declared | 29.1% | medium |
| Soho & Jewellery Quarter | Labour | Labour | 42.0% | medium |
| South Yardley | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | 44.7% | high |
| Sparkbrook & Balsall Heath East | Labour | Independent | 48.6% | medium |
| Sparkhill | Labour | Labour | 48.3% | medium |
| Stirchley | Labour | Green Party | 49.5% | medium |
| Stockland Green | Labour | Independent | 34.1% | high |
| Sutton Four Oaks | Conservative | Not yet declared | 49.5% | high |
| Sutton Mere Green | Conservative | Conservative | 51.6% | medium |
| Sutton Reddicap | Conservative | Conservative | 49.9% | medium |
| Sutton Roughley | Conservative | Not yet declared | 48.1% | medium |
| Sutton Trinity | Conservative | Not yet declared | 43.7% | high |
| Sutton Vesey | Labour | Not yet declared | 41.5% | high |
| Sutton Walmley & Minworth | Conservative | Conservative | 46.0% | medium |
| Sutton Wylde Green | Conservative | Conservative | 44.3% | medium |
| Tyseley & Hay Mills | Labour | Green Party | 50.4% | medium |
| Ward End | Labour | Not yet declared | 32.1% | medium |
| Weoley & Selly Oak | Labour | Not yet declared | 34.0% | medium |
| Yardley East | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | 48.0% | medium |
| Yardley West & Stechford | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | 55.6% | medium |