Local council · Essex
Vange
1 seat contested on Thursday 7 May 2026. 7 candidates from 7 parties.
Predicted vote share
What the model expects
Predictions are point estimates: the model's best guess, not a guarantee. The "How this prediction was made" section below lists every step that shaped this forecast.
How accurate was the model here?
Our 7 May 2026 forecast for Vange
✓ Winner called correctly
, predicted Reform UK,
actual Reform UK.
Major-party MAE: 12.18pp
across the parties below.
| Party | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 34.9% | 42.7% | -7.8pp |
| Labour | 11.0% | 31.0% | -20.0pp |
| Conservative | 28.4% | 8.5% | +19.9pp |
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full Essex accuracy summary or the national audit.
Candidates 2026
Parties on the ballot
- Conservative and Unionist Party
- Green Party
- Independent
- Labour Party
- Lib Dem
- Reform UK
- Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition
How this prediction was made
- Fallback (no historic match) . No prior contest results in DC bundle for this ward (likely 2026 boundary change). Synthesised prediction from council-level GE2024 aggregate + national 2024→2026 swing + county-2025 anchor where available, restricted to the parties on the 2026 ballot. Marked low confidence.
- Reform realignment uplift (no-anchor councils) . No 2025 parent-county anchor available; demographic-borrow rule applied. Asian 3.8% → base target 36.0% × regional multiplier 0.85 = 30.6%. Reform 30.2% → 30.6% (lift +0.4pp). Other parties scaled pro-rata. Calibration source: Burnley 2026 ward-level Asian%↔Reform% relationship (the 2-tier district that did receive the LCC 2025 anchor).
- National-share calibration . Aggregate-predicted vs national-polled mismatch corrected at strength 0.65. Multipliers — Labour ×0.82, Conservative ×1.00, Reform UK ×1.15, Liberal Democrats ×0.96, Green Party ×1.12, SNP ×1.00, Plaid Cymru ×1.00.