After May 7
Reform UK majority
Council size: 75 seats · 77 up on May 7
Council · County council
Essex
Reform UK majority after May 7 2026. (Majority gained, previously Conservative)
What happened on May 7
Seats won and overall control
Reform UK
53 of 75 seats
Won 53 on May 7 · had 1 before · majority
Next election
TBC (Local Government Reorganisation)
Two-tier council under English Local Government Reorganisation. Next election date awaiting Statutory Instrument.
Post-May 7 composition
Every party's seat count on the new council
Pre-May-7 composition is the latest OCD snapshot of who held each seat; post is pre minus seats up plus actual winners.
Local Government Reorganisation
Why we don't yet know when Essex next votes
Essex sits in a two-tier county area under review for Local Government Reorganisation following the English Devolution White Paper (December 2024). The county council and its districts are expected to be replaced by one or more new unitary authorities. Until the Statutory Instrument is laid, the next election date is not in our gift to guess.
We'll flip this page from TBC to a confirmed date the moment the SI publishes.
How accurate was the model here?
Our 7 May 2026 forecast for Essex
Locked, sha256-witnessed forecast scored against the actual count. See the full national accuracy audit →
Our locked May 7 forecast
The pre-election prediction
This is the seats-on-the-ballot projection we published before polls opened, used here for accuracy comparison only.
All wards
Per-ward forecast vs actual
| Ward | Our top pick | Actual winner | Predicted share | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billericay North | Reform UK | Conservative | 34.6% | low |
| Bocking | Conservative | Reform UK | 41.8% | medium |
| Braintree Eastern | Green Party | Green Party | 39.5% | medium |
| Braintree Town | Conservative | Reform UK | 44.8% | medium |
| Brentwood Hutton | Conservative | Reform UK | 46.7% | medium |
| Brentwood North | Lib Dem | Reform UK | 34.8% | medium |
| Brentwood Rural | Conservative | Reform UK | 41.1% | medium |
| Brentwood South | Reform UK | Reform UK | 34.6% | medium |
| Brightlingsea | Reform UK | Reform UK | 34.1% | medium |
| Broomfield & Writtle | Reform UK | Conservative | 34.6% | low |
| Burnham & Southminster | Reform UK | Independent | 34.4% | low |
| Burstead | Reform UK | Conservative | 34.5% | low |
| Canvey Island East | Independent | Reform UK | 35.5% | medium |
| Canvey Island West | Independent | Reform UK | 37.0% | medium |
| Castledon & Crouch | Reform UK | Reform UK | 34.6% | low |
| Chelmer | Conservative | Reform UK | 39.4% | medium |
| Chelmsford Central | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | 38.6% | medium |
| Chelmsford North | Reform UK | Lib Dem | 34.5% | medium |
| Chelmsford Springfield | n/a | Not yet declared | n/a | none |
| Chelmsford West | Reform UK | Lib Dem | 34.2% | medium |
| Chigwell & Buckhurst Hill East | Reform UK | Conservative | 34.4% | low |
| Clacton North | Conservative | Reform UK | 43.4% | medium |
| Clacton South | Reform UK | Reform UK | 34.4% | low |
| Clacton West & St Osyth | Reform UK | Reform UK | 34.4% | low |
| Colchester Abbey | Reform UK | Labour | 34.6% | low |
| Colchester Lexden | Reform UK | Conservative | 34.6% | low |
| Colchester Maypole | Reform UK | Reform UK | 34.6% | low |
| Colchester North | Reform UK | Lib Dem | 34.6% | low |
| Colchester St Johns | Reform UK | Reform UK | 34.6% | low |
| Constable | Conservative | Conservative | 45.5% | medium |
| Danbury & The Hanningfields | Reform UK | Reform UK | 34.4% | low |
| Dunmow | Reform UK | Reform UK | 33.8% | medium |
| Epping & Theydon Bois | Reform UK | Reform UK | 39.3% | low |
| Frinton & Walton | Reform UK | Reform UK | 34.4% | low |
| Gloucester Park | Reform UK | Reform UK | 34.5% | low |
| Great Baddow & Galleywood | Reform UK | Reform UK | 34.4% | low |
| Hadleigh | Reform UK | The People's Independent Party | 34.3% | medium |
| Halstead | Conservative | Reform UK | 50.0% | medium |
| Harlow Common & Church Langley | Reform UK | Conservative | 34.6% | low |
| Harlow Netteswell | Reform UK | Conservative | 34.6% | low |
| Harlow Parndon & Toddbrook | Reform UK | Conservative | 34.6% | low |
| Harlow South West | Reform UK | Conservative | 34.5% | low |
| Harwich | Reform UK | Reform UK | 36.3% | medium |
| Hedingham | Conservative | Reform UK | 50.9% | medium |
| Laindon Town | Reform UK | Reform UK | 34.5% | low |
| Loughton North | Reform UK | Reform UK | 34.4% | low |
| Loughton South & Buckhurst Hill West | Reform UK | Reform UK | 34.4% | low |
| Maldon Rural North | Reform UK | Reform UK | 34.6% | low |
| Maldon Rural South | Reform UK | Reform UK | 34.4% | low |
| Maldon Town & Heybridge | Reform UK | Reform UK | 34.4% | low |
| Mersea & Tiptree | Reform UK | Reform UK | 34.6% | low |
| North Weald & Nazeing | Reform UK | Reform UK | 40.1% | low |
| Old Harlow | Reform UK | Conservative | 34.5% | low |
| Ongar & Rural | Reform UK | Reform UK | 39.8% | low |
| Pitsea | Reform UK | Reform UK | 34.5% | low |
| Rayleigh South | Reform UK | Reform UK | 34.5% | medium |
| Rayleigh West | Reform UK | Reform UK | 34.5% | low |
| Rochford East | Reform UK | Reform UK | 34.6% | low |
| Rochford North | Reform UK | Reform UK | 34.1% | medium |
| Rochford South | Conservative | Reform UK | 42.8% | medium |
| Saffron Walden | Reform UK | Residents for Uttlesford | 33.7% | medium |
| South Benfleet | Conservative | Reform UK | 38.2% | medium |
| Stansted | Reform UK | Conservative | 33.9% | medium |
| Stanway & Marks Tey | Reform UK | Reform UK | 34.4% | low |
| Takeley | Reform UK | Reform UK | 34.5% | low |
| Tendring Rural East | Conservative | Reform UK | 48.8% | medium |
| Tendring Rural West | Conservative | Reform UK | 35.7% | medium |
| Thaxted | Reform UK | Reform UK | 33.6% | medium |
| Three Fields & Great Notley | Reform UK | Reform UK | 39.3% | low |
| Thundersley | Reform UK | Reform UK | 34.5% | medium |
| Vange | Reform UK | Reform UK | 34.4% | low |
| Waltham Abbey | Conservative | Reform UK | 49.7% | medium |
| Westley Heights | Reform UK | Independent | 34.4% | low |
| Wickford East & Bowers Gifford | Reform UK | Reform UK | 34.6% | low |
| Witham Town | Reform UK | Conservative | 34.6% | low |
| Witham West & Rural | Reform UK | Reform UK | 34.6% | low |
| Wivenhoe St Andrew | Reform UK | Lib Dem | 35.3% | medium |
| Woodham Ferrers | Reform UK | Reform UK | 34.5% | low |