Local council · Essex
Waltham Abbey
1 seat contested on Thursday 7 May 2026. 4 candidates from 4 parties.
Predicted vote share
What the model expects
Predictions are point estimates: the model's best guess, not a guarantee. The "How this prediction was made" section below lists every step that shaped this forecast.
How accurate was the model here?
Our 7 May 2026 forecast for Waltham Abbey
✗ Winner missed
, predicted Conservative,
actual Reform UK.
Major-party MAE: 11.83pp
across the parties below.
| Party | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 35.4% | 49.6% | -14.2pp |
| Labour | 11.8% | 13.5% | -1.7pp |
| Conservative | 50.3% | 26.6% | +23.7pp |
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full Essex accuracy summary or the national audit.
Recent contests
What happened last time
| Date | Type | Winner | Top share | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-05-06 | Cycle | Conservative and Unionist Party | 57.4% | declaration |
| 2017-05-04 | Cycle | Conservative and Unionist Party | 59.7% | declaration |
Candidates 2026
Parties on the ballot
- Conservative and Unionist Party
- Labour Party
- Lib Dem
- Reform UK
How this prediction was made
- Baseline . Most recent borough result (2021-05-06)
- National Swing (STM) . Strong Transition Model: multiplicative bounded swing, dampened by 0.1 for local
- Demographics . No significant demographic adjustments for this ward
- Incumbency . No current holder data available
- New Party Entry . Reform UK estimated at 5.0% from GE/LCC proxy + swing
- Normalise . All shares scaled to sum to 100%
- Restrict to ballot . Removed 7 party/parties not standing in 2026 (Green Party 12.9pp, The For Britain Movement 6.5pp, Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition 0.8pp, Restore Britain 0.3pp, SNP 0.0pp, Plaid Cymru 0.0pp, Other 0.0pp). Their share redistributed pro-rata.
- 2025 county-cycle anchor . No 2025 reference available for this council's parent area. Stage 1 uses national polling only.
- Reform realignment uplift (no-anchor councils) . No 2025 parent-county anchor available; demographic-borrow rule applied. Asian 3.8% → base target 36.0% × regional multiplier 0.85 = 30.6%. Reform 6.3% → 30.6% (lift +24.3pp). Other parties scaled pro-rata. Calibration source: Burnley 2026 ward-level Asian%↔Reform% relationship (the 2-tier district that did receive the LCC 2025 anchor).
- National-share calibration . Aggregate-predicted vs national-polled mismatch corrected at strength 0.65. Multipliers: Labour ×0.85, Conservative ×1.02, Reform UK ×1.12, Liberal Democrats ×0.88, Green Party ×1.02, SNP ×1.00, Plaid Cymru ×1.00.