Local council · Havant
Havant St Faith's
1 seat contested on Thursday 7 May 2026. 3 candidates from 3 parties.
Neighbours shaded by Reform UK share vs this ward, red = higher, blue = lower.
Predicted vote share
What the model expects
Predictions are point estimates: the model's best guess, not a guarantee. The "How this prediction was made" section below lists every step that shaped this forecast.
How accurate was the model here?
Our 7 May 2026 forecast for Havant St Faith's
✓ Winner called correctly
, predicted Labour,
actual Labour.
Major-party MAE: 5.83pp
across the parties below.
| Party | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 38.7% | 31.9% | +6.8pp |
| Labour | 39.0% | 37.1% | +2.0pp |
| Conservative | 22.3% | 31.1% | -8.8pp |
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full Havant accuracy summary or the national audit.
Recent contests
What happened last time
| Date | Type | Winner | Top share | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-02 | Cycle | Labour Party | 21.1% | declaration |
Candidates 2026
Parties on the ballot
- Conservative and Unionist Party
- Labour Party
- Reform UK
How this area looks demographically
Figures are for Havant as a whole. The same local-authority figures are used for every ward in the council, finer ward-level demographics will land in a future release.
- White British (projected May 2026): 92.5% (Census 2021: 93.2%)
- Asian heritage (projected May 2026): 1.8% (Census 2021: 1.7%)
- Average area deprivation decile: 5.4 (1 = most deprived, 10 = least)
How this prediction was made
- Baseline . Most recent borough result (2024-05-02)
- BES MRP Prior . Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 south_east prior (weight 15%, n=5565 regional respondents)
- National Swing (STM) . Strong Transition Model: multiplicative bounded swing, dampened by 0.1 for local
- Demographics . 2 demographic factor(s) applied
- Incumbency . No current holder data available
- New Party Entry . Reform UK has existing baseline, no proxy needed
- Normalise . All shares scaled to sum to 100%
- Restrict to ballot . Removed 6 party/parties not standing in 2026 (Green Party 13.1pp, Liberal Democrats 5.3pp, Independent 3.9pp, SNP 0.1pp, Plaid Cymru 0.0pp, Other 0.0pp). Their share redistributed pro-rata.
- 2025 county-cycle anchor . No 2025 reference available for this council's parent area. Stage 1 uses national polling only.
- Reform realignment uplift (no-anchor councils) . No 2025 parent-county anchor available; demographic-borrow rule applied. Asian 1.8% → base target 36.0% × regional multiplier 0.85 = 30.6%. Reform 25.7% → 30.6% (lift +4.9pp). Other parties scaled pro-rata. Calibration source: Burnley 2026 ward-level Asian%↔Reform% relationship (the 2-tier district that did receive the LCC 2025 anchor).
- National-share calibration . Aggregate-predicted vs national-polled mismatch corrected at strength 0.65. Multipliers — Labour ×0.82, Conservative ×1.00, Reform UK ×1.15, Liberal Democrats ×0.96, Green Party ×1.12, SNP ×1.00, Plaid Cymru ×1.00.