Local council · Hertfordshire
Flamstead End & Turnford
1 seat contested on Thursday 7 May 2026. 5 candidates from 5 parties.
Predicted vote share
What the model expects
Predictions are point estimates: the model's best guess, not a guarantee. The "How this prediction was made" section below lists every step that shaped this forecast.
How accurate was the model here?
Our 7 May 2026 forecast for Flamstead End & Turnford
✗ Winner missed
, predicted Reform UK,
actual Conservative.
Major-party MAE: 3.08pp
across the parties below.
| Party | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 39.9% | 35.3% | +4.6pp |
| Labour | 11.4% | 10.1% | +1.3pp |
| Conservative | 32.2% | 39.9% | -7.7pp |
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full Hertfordshire accuracy summary or the national audit.
Recent contests
What happened last time
| Date | Type | Winner | Top share | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-01 | Cycle | Reform UK | 38.0% | declaration |
| 2021-05-06 | Cycle | Conservative and Unionist Party | 67.9% | declaration |
| 2017-05-04 | Cycle | Conservative and Unionist Party | 64.9% | declaration |
Candidates 2026
Parties on the ballot
- Conservative and Unionist Party
- Green Party
- Labour Party
- Lib Dem
- Reform UK
How this prediction was made
- Baseline . Most recent borough result (2025-05-01)
- National Swing (STM) . Strong Transition Model: multiplicative bounded swing, dampened by 0.1 for local
- Demographics . No significant demographic adjustments for this ward
- Incumbency . No current holder data available
- New Party Entry . Reform UK has existing baseline, no proxy needed
- Normalise . All shares scaled to sum to 100%
- Restrict to ballot . Removed 5 party/parties not standing in 2026 (British Democratic Party 2.8pp, Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition 0.7pp, SNP 0.0pp, Plaid Cymru 0.0pp, Other 0.0pp). Their share redistributed pro-rata.
- 2025 county-cycle anchor . Blended (weight 0.1) toward May 2025 results for hertfordshire (78 divisions, 285,843 votes), adjusted by national swing since May 2025. This corrects the model's tendency to under-weight Reform's 2025 county breakthroughs in 2-tier districts.
- National-share calibration . Aggregate-predicted vs national-polled mismatch corrected at strength 0.65. Multipliers — Labour ×0.82, Conservative ×1.00, Reform UK ×1.15, Liberal Democrats ×0.96, Green Party ×1.12, SNP ×1.00, Plaid Cymru ×1.00.