Local council · Isle of Wight
Brading & St Helens
1 seat contested on Thursday 7 May 2026. 3 candidates from 3 parties.
Neighbours shaded by Reform UK share vs this ward, red = higher, blue = lower.
Predicted vote share
What the model expects
Predictions are point estimates: the model's best guess, not a guarantee. The "How this prediction was made" section below lists every step that shaped this forecast.
How accurate was the model here?
Our 7 May 2026 forecast for Brading & St Helens
| Party | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 68.6% | 30.8% | +37.8pp |
| Labour | 30.9% | 5.8% | +25.0pp |
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full Isle of Wight accuracy summary or the national audit.
Recent contests
What happened last time
| Date | Type | Winner | Top share | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-05-06 | Cycle | Our Island | 48.0% | declaration |
Candidates 2026
Parties on the ballot
- Independent
- Labour Party
- Reform UK
How this area looks demographically
Figures are for Isle of Wight as a whole. The same local-authority figures are used for every ward in the council, finer ward-level demographics will land in a future release.
- White British (projected May 2026): 93.3% (Census 2021: 93.8%)
- Asian heritage (projected May 2026): 1.2% (Census 2021: 1.2%)
- Average area deprivation decile: 4.6 (1 = most deprived, 10 = least)
How this prediction was made
- Baseline . Most recent borough result (2021-05-06)
- BES MRP Prior . Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 south_east prior (weight 15%, n=5565 regional respondents)
- National Swing (STM) . Strong Transition Model: multiplicative bounded swing, dampened by 0.1 for local
- Demographics . 2 demographic factor(s) applied
- Incumbency . No current holder data available
- New Party Entry . Reform UK estimated at 5.9% from GE/LCC proxy + swing
- Normalise . All shares scaled to sum to 100%
- Restrict to ballot . Removed 7 party/parties not standing in 2026 (Our Island 39.6pp, Conservative 30.2pp, Liberal Democrats 10.8pp, Green Party 1.8pp, Other 0.0pp, SNP 0.0pp, Plaid Cymru 0.0pp). Their share redistributed pro-rata.
- 2025 county-cycle anchor . No 2025 reference available for this council's parent area. Stage 1 uses national polling only.
- National-share calibration . Aggregate-predicted vs national-polled mismatch corrected at strength 0.65. Multipliers — Labour ×0.82, Conservative ×1.00, Reform UK ×1.15, Liberal Democrats ×0.96, Green Party ×1.12, SNP ×1.00, Plaid Cymru ×1.00.