After May 7
No overall control. Reform UK largest party
Council size: 39 seats · 39 up on May 7
Council · Unitary authority
Isle of Wight
No overall control. Reform UK largest party after May 7 2026. (Remained no overall control, previously ncc)
What happened on May 7
Seats won and overall control
Reform UK
19 of 39 seats
Won 19 on May 7 · had 2 before · largest party
Next election
May 2030
Whole council every 4 years.
Post-May 7 composition
Every party's seat count on the new council
Pre-May-7 composition is the latest OCD snapshot of who held each seat; post is pre minus seats up plus actual winners.
How accurate was the model here?
Our 7 May 2026 forecast for Isle of Wight
Locked, sha256-witnessed forecast scored against the actual count. See the full national accuracy audit →
Our locked May 7 forecast
The pre-election prediction
This is the seats-on-the-ballot projection we published before polls opened, used here for accuracy comparison only.
All wards
Per-ward forecast vs actual
| Ward | Our top pick | Actual winner | Predicted share | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bembridge | Conservative | Lib Dem | 64.3% | medium |
| Binstead & Fishbourne | Independent | Independent | 42.8% | medium |
| Brading & St Helens | Labour | Independent | 52.2% | medium |
| Brighstone, Calbourne & Shalfleet | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | 42.7% | medium |
| Carisbrooke & Gunville | Green Party | Green Party | 35.3% | medium |
| Central Rural | Reform UK | Reform UK | 50.2% | medium |
| Chale, Niton & Shorwell | Green Party | Green Party | 41.5% | medium |
| Cowes Medina | Independent | Independent | 48.2% | medium |
| Cowes North | Reform UK | Labour | 34.7% | medium |
| Cowes South & Northwood | Conservative | Reform UK | 37.0% | medium |
| Cowes West & Gurnard | Independent | Independent | 55.6% | medium |
| East Cowes | Independent | Independent | 46.8% | medium |
| Fairlee & Whippingham | Conservative | Conservative | 42.7% | medium |
| Freshwater North & Yarmouth | Conservative | Reform UK | 38.1% | medium |
| Freshwater South | Independent | Independent | 47.1% | medium |
| Haylands & Swanmore | Reform UK | Reform UK | 34.0% | medium |
| Lake North | Reform UK | Reform UK | 44.3% | medium |
| Lake South | Conservative | Reform UK | 43.5% | medium |
| Mountjoy & Shide | Conservative | Reform UK | 43.4% | medium |
| Nettlestone & Seaview | Independent | Independent | 33.9% | medium |
| Newchurch, Havenstreet & Ashey | Conservative | Reform UK | 42.7% | medium |
| Newport Central | Independent | Independent | 46.5% | medium |
| Newport West | Conservative | Reform UK | 45.7% | medium |
| Osborne | Conservative | Reform UK | 34.6% | medium |
| Pan & Barton | Conservative | Reform UK | 57.8% | medium |
| Parkhurst & Hunnyhill | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | 64.0% | medium |
| Ryde Appley & Elmfield | Conservative | Lib Dem | 54.5% | medium |
| Ryde Monktonmead | Independent | Independent | 42.7% | medium |
| Ryde North West | Independent | Reform UK | 33.4% | medium |
| Ryde South East | Reform UK | Reform UK | 34.1% | medium |
| Ryde West | Independent | Reform UK | 39.3% | medium |
| Sandown North | Reform UK | Independent | 33.8% | medium |
| Sandown South | Conservative | Reform UK | 43.3% | medium |
| Shanklin Central | Conservative | Reform UK | 39.6% | medium |
| Shanklin South | Conservative | Reform UK | 47.9% | medium |
| Totland & Colwell | Reform UK | Independent | 33.7% | medium |
| Ventnor & St Lawrence | Reform UK | Conservative | 34.4% | medium |
| Wootton Bridge | Reform UK | Reform UK | 34.2% | medium |
| Wroxall, Lowtherville & Bonchurch | Independent | Independent | 46.4% | medium |