Local council · Manchester
Baguley
1 seat contested on Thursday 7 May 2026. 6 candidates from 6 parties.
Neighbours shaded by Reform UK share vs this ward, red = higher, blue = lower.
Predicted vote share
What the model expects
Predictions are point estimates: the model's best guess, not a guarantee. The "How this prediction was made" section below lists every step that shaped this forecast.
How accurate was the model here?
Our 7 May 2026 forecast for Baguley
| Party | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 32.0% | 40.9% | -8.8pp |
| Labour | 32.3% | 27.9% | +4.5pp |
| Conservative | 14.2% | 7.5% | +6.7pp |
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full Manchester accuracy summary or the national audit.
Recent contests
What happened last time
| Date | Type | Winner | Top share | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-05 | By-election | Labour Party | 46.9% | declaration |
| 2024-05-02 | Cycle | Labour and Co-operative Party | 64.1% | declaration |
| 2023-05-04 | Cycle | Labour and Co-operative Party | 68.4% | declaration |
| 2022-05-05 | Cycle | Labour and Co-operative Party | 66.0% | declaration |
| 2021-05-06 | Cycle | Labour and Co-operative Party | 63.2% | declaration |
Candidates 2026
Parties on the ballot
- Conservative and Unionist Party
- Green Party
- Labour and Co-operative Party
- Lib Dem
- Reform UK
- Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition
How this area looks demographically
Figures are for Manchester as a whole. The same local-authority figures are used for every ward in the council, finer ward-level demographics will land in a future release.
- White British (projected May 2026): 43.0% (Census 2021: 48.7%)
- Asian heritage (projected May 2026): 22.5% (Census 2021: 20.9%)
- Average area deprivation decile: 2.5 (1 = most deprived, 10 = least)
How this prediction was made
- Baseline . Most recent borough result (2024-09-05)
- BES MRP Prior . Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 north_west prior (weight 15%, n=3934 regional respondents)
- National Swing (STM) . Strong Transition Model: multiplicative bounded swing, dampened by 0.1 for local
- Demographics . 2 demographic factor(s) applied
- Incumbency . No current holder data available
- New Party Entry . Reform UK estimated at 3.2% from GE/LCC proxy + swing
- Normalise . All shares scaled to sum to 100%
- Restrict to ballot . Removed 5 party/parties not standing in 2026 (SDP 4.5pp, Independent 2.0pp, SNP 0.1pp, Other 0.0pp, Plaid Cymru 0.0pp). Their share redistributed pro-rata.
- 2025 county-cycle anchor . No 2025 reference available for this council's parent area. Stage 1 uses national polling only.
- Reform realignment uplift (no-anchor councils) . No 2025 parent-county anchor available; demographic-borrow rule applied. Asian 22.5% → base target 27.0% × regional multiplier 0.75 = 20.2%. Reform 2.7% → 20.2% (lift +17.5pp). Other parties scaled pro-rata. Calibration source: Burnley 2026 ward-level Asian%↔Reform% relationship (the 2-tier district that did receive the LCC 2025 anchor).
- National-share calibration . Aggregate-predicted vs national-polled mismatch corrected at strength 0.65. Multipliers — Labour ×0.82, Conservative ×1.00, Reform UK ×1.15, Liberal Democrats ×0.96, Green Party ×1.12, SNP ×1.00, Plaid Cymru ×1.00.