Local council · Milton Keynes
Bletchley Park & Fenny Stratford
3 seats contested on Thursday 7 May 2026. 17 candidates from 6 parties.
Predicted vote share
What the model expects
Predictions are point estimates: the model's best guess, not a guarantee. The "How this prediction was made" section below lists every step that shaped this forecast.
How accurate was the model here?
Our 7 May 2026 forecast for Bletchley Park & Fenny Stratford
✓ Winner called correctly
, predicted Reform UK,
actual Reform UK.
Major-party MAE: 4.57pp
across the parties below.
| Party | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 30.7% | 32.7% | -2.0pp |
| Labour | 19.5% | 28.8% | -9.3pp |
| Conservative | 23.4% | 18.0% | +5.5pp |
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full Milton Keynes accuracy summary or the national audit.
Candidates 2026
Parties on the ballot
- Conservative and Unionist Party
- Green Party
- Independent
- Labour Party
- Lib Dem
- Reform UK
How this prediction was made
- Fallback (no historic match) . No prior contest results in DC bundle for this ward (likely 2026 boundary change). Synthesised prediction from council-level GE2024 aggregate + national 2024→2026 swing + county-2025 anchor where available, restricted to the parties on the 2026 ballot. Marked low confidence.
- Reform realignment uplift (no-anchor councils) . No 2025 parent-county anchor available; demographic-borrow rule applied. Asian 13.9% → base target 30.6% × regional multiplier 0.85 = 26.0%. Reform 22.9% → 26.0% (lift +3.2pp). Other parties scaled pro-rata. Calibration source: Burnley 2026 ward-level Asian%↔Reform% relationship (the 2-tier district that did receive the LCC 2025 anchor).
- National-share calibration . Aggregate-predicted vs national-polled mismatch corrected at strength 0.65. Multipliers: Labour ×0.85, Conservative ×1.02, Reform UK ×1.12, Liberal Democrats ×0.88, Green Party ×1.02, SNP ×1.00, Plaid Cymru ×1.00.