Local council · Redbridge
Seven Kings
3 seats contested on Thursday 7 May 2026. 16 candidates from 7 parties.
Neighbours shaded by Reform UK share vs this ward, red = higher, blue = lower.
Predicted vote share
What the model expects
Predictions are point estimates: the model's best guess, not a guarantee. The "How this prediction was made" section below lists every step that shaped this forecast.
How accurate was the model here?
Our 7 May 2026 forecast for Seven Kings
| Party | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 8.9% | 9.0% | -0.1pp |
| Labour | 32.4% | 13.4% | +19.0pp |
| Conservative | 15.3% | 13.3% | +2.0pp |
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full Redbridge accuracy summary or the national audit.
Recent contests
What happened last time
| Date | Type | Winner | Top share | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-05-05 | Cycle | Labour Party | 23.3% | declaration |
| 2021-05-06 | By-election | Labour Party | 57.4% | declaration |
| 2018-05-03 | Cycle | Labour Party | 27.8% | declaration |
Candidates 2026
Parties on the ballot
- Conservative and Unionist Party
- Green Party
- Labour Party
- Redbridge Independents
- Redbridge Matters
- Redbridge Trade Union Party
- Reform UK
How this area looks demographically
Figures are for Redbridge as a whole. The same local-authority figures are used for every ward in the council, finer ward-level demographics will land in a future release.
- White British (projected May 2026): 18.8% (Census 2021: 23.1%)
- Asian heritage (projected May 2026): 48.8% (Census 2021: 47.3%)
- Average area deprivation decile: 6.0 (1 = most deprived, 10 = least)
How this prediction was made
- Baseline . Most recent borough result (2022-05-05)
- BES MRP Prior . Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 london prior (weight 15%, n=3660 regional respondents)
- National Swing (STM) . Strong Transition Model: multiplicative bounded swing, dampened by 0.65 for local
- Demographics . 2 demographic factor(s) applied
- Incumbency . No current holder data available
- New Party Entry . Reform UK estimated at 9.8% from GE/LCC proxy + swing
- Normalise . All shares scaled to sum to 100%
- Restrict to ballot . Removed 6 party/parties not standing in 2026 (Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition 10.5pp, Liberal Democrats 3.6pp, Restore Britain 1.6pp, SNP 0.1pp, Plaid Cymru 0.1pp, Other 0.0pp). Their share redistributed pro-rata.
- 2025 county-cycle anchor . No 2025 reference available for this council's parent area. Stage 1 uses national polling only.
- Reform realignment uplift (no-anchor councils) . No 2025 parent-county anchor available; demographic-borrow rule applied. Asian 48.8% → base target 17.0% × regional multiplier 0.00 = 15.0%. Reform 18.6% → 15.0% (lift +-3.6pp). Other parties scaled pro-rata. Calibration source: Burnley 2026 ward-level Asian%↔Reform% relationship (the 2-tier district that did receive the LCC 2025 anchor).
- National-share calibration . Aggregate-predicted vs national-polled mismatch corrected at strength 0.65. Multipliers: Labour ×0.85, Conservative ×1.02, Reform UK ×1.12, Liberal Democrats ×0.88, Green Party ×1.02, SNP ×1.00, Plaid Cymru ×1.00.