Sefton. May 7 2026 result and what's next

What happened on May 7

Seats won and overall control

After May 7

Labour majority

Council size: 66 seats · 66 up on May 7

Reform UK

5 of 66 seats

Won 5 on May 7 · had 0 before

Next election

May 2027

By thirds, three years in four.

Post-May 7 composition

Every party's seat count on the new council

Labour

36

Lib Dem

17

Reform UK

5

Independent / Other

5

Green Party

3

Pre-May-7 composition is the latest OCD snapshot of who held each seat; post is pre minus seats up plus actual winners.

How accurate was the model here?

Our 7 May 2026 forecast for Sefton

32% 7 / 22 winners called correctly across this council's wards

6.45pp major-party MAE, average gap between predicted and actual share

+6.03pp Reform UK signed bias, positive = predicted hot, negative = predicted cold

Locked, sha256-witnessed forecast scored against the actual count. See the full national accuracy audit →

Our locked May 7 forecast

The pre-election prediction

Reform UK

22

Labour

20

Conservative

15

Lib Dem

6

Green Party

2

Independent

1

This is the seats-on-the-ballot projection we published before polls opened, used here for accuracy comparison only.

All wards

Per-ward forecast vs actual

Ward	Our top pick	Actual winner	Predicted share	Confidence
Ainsdale	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	33.7%	high
Aintree & Maghull South	Labour	Labour	46.0%	low
Birkdale	Reform UK	Lib Dem	31.7%	high
Blundellsands	Labour	Labour	36.6%	high
Bootle East	Labour	Labour	38.6%	low
Bootle West	Labour	Labour	38.6%	low
Cambridge	Reform UK	Lib Dem	31.1%	high
Duke's	Reform UK	Lib Dem	30.9%	high
Ford	Labour	Labour	55.5%	high
Formby East	Labour	Labour	38.6%	low
Formby West	Labour	Labour	38.6%	low
Great Crosby	Labour	Labour	38.9%	low
Kew	Reform UK	Lib Dem	31.9%	high
Litherland	Labour	Labour	37.6%	high
Lydiate & Maghull West	Labour	Lydiate and Maghull Community Independents	46.0%	low
Maghull East	Labour	Labour	46.0%	low
Meols	Reform UK	Lib Dem	31.3%	high
Netherton North	Labour	Labour	38.6%	low
Netherton South & Orrell	Labour	Labour	38.9%	low
Norwood	Labour	Reform UK	33.0%	high
Thornton & Hightown	Labour	Labour	38.9%	low
Waterloo	Labour	Green Party	41.1%	low

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