Local council · Sefton
Netherton South & Orrell
3 seats contested on Thursday 7 May 2026. 13 candidates from 5 parties.
Predicted vote share
What the model expects
Predictions are point estimates: the model's best guess, not a guarantee. The "How this prediction was made" section below lists every step that shaped this forecast.
How accurate was the model here?
Our 7 May 2026 forecast for Netherton South & Orrell
✗ Winner missed
, predicted Reform UK,
actual Labour.
Major-party MAE: 5.43pp
across the parties below.
| Party | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 32.9% | 33.8% | -0.9pp |
| Labour | 30.5% | 42.2% | -11.7pp |
| Conservative | 13.1% | 1.1% | +12.0pp |
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full Sefton accuracy summary or the national audit.
Candidates 2026
Parties on the ballot
- Conservative and Unionist Party
- Green Party
- Labour Party
- Lib Dem
- Reform UK
How this prediction was made
- Fallback (no historic match) . No prior contest results in DC bundle for this ward (likely 2026 boundary change). Synthesised prediction from council-level GE2024 aggregate + national 2024→2026 swing + county-2025 anchor where available, restricted to the parties on the 2026 ballot. Marked low confidence.
- Reform realignment uplift (no-anchor councils) . No 2025 parent-county anchor available; demographic-borrow rule applied. Asian 1.7% → base target 36.0% × regional multiplier 0.75 = 27.0%. Reform 25.9% → 27.0% (lift +1.1pp). Other parties scaled pro-rata. Calibration source: Burnley 2026 ward-level Asian%↔Reform% relationship (the 2-tier district that did receive the LCC 2025 anchor).
- National-share calibration . Aggregate-predicted vs national-polled mismatch corrected at strength 0.65. Multipliers — Labour ×0.82, Conservative ×1.00, Reform UK ×1.15, Liberal Democrats ×0.96, Green Party ×1.12, SNP ×1.00, Plaid Cymru ×1.00.