St. Helens. May 7 2026 result and what's next

What happened on May 7

Seats won and overall control

After May 7

Reform UK majority

Council size: 48 seats · 46 up on May 7

Reform UK

33 of 48 seats

Won 33 on May 7 · had 2 before · majority

Next election

May 2030

Whole council every 4 years.

Post-May 7 composition

Every party's seat count on the new council

Reform UK

33

Independent / Other

6

Labour

4

Lib Dem

3

Conservative

1

Pre-May-7 composition is the latest OCD snapshot of who held each seat; post is pre minus seats up plus actual winners.

How accurate was the model here?

Our 7 May 2026 forecast for St. Helens

59% 10 / 17 winners called correctly across this council's wards

8.53pp major-party MAE, average gap between predicted and actual share

-5.01pp Reform UK signed bias, positive = predicted hot, negative = predicted cold

Locked, sha256-witnessed forecast scored against the actual count. See the full national accuracy audit →

Our locked May 7 forecast

The pre-election prediction

Reform UK

16

Labour

16

Green Party

5

Conservative

4

Independent

3

Lib Dem

2

This is the seats-on-the-ballot projection we published before polls opened, used here for accuracy comparison only.

All wards

Per-ward forecast vs actual

Ward	Our top pick	Actual winner	Predicted share	Confidence
Billinge & Seneley Green	Reform UK	Reform UK	31.2%	medium
Blackbrook	Reform UK	Reform UK	45.7%	high
Bold & Lea Green	Green Party	Reform UK	32.0%	medium
Eccleston	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	42.3%	high
Haydock	Green Party	Reform UK	42.9%	high
Moss Bank	Labour	Labour	52.2%	high
Newton-le-Willows East	Reform UK	Labour	31.8%	medium
Newton-le-Willows West	Independent	Independent	33.7%	medium
Parr	Labour	Reform UK	48.0%	high
Peasley Cross & Fingerpost	Labour	Reform UK	36.7%	medium
Rainford	Conservative	Conservative	43.0%	high
Rainhill	Independent	Independent	38.4%	high
St Helens Town Centre	n/a	Not yet declared	n/a	none
Sutton North West	Labour	Reform UK	45.0%	medium
Sutton South East	Reform UK	Reform UK	60.6%	medium
Thatto Heath	Labour	Reform UK	35.3%	high
West Park	Labour	Reform UK	39.3%	high
Windle	Labour	Reform UK	32.4%	high

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