Winchester. May 7 2026 result and what's next

What happened on May 7

Seats won and overall control

After May 7

Liberal Democrats majority

Council size: 45 seats · 15 up on May 7

Reform UK

0 of 45 seats

Won 0 on May 7 · had 0 before

Next election

TBC (Local Government Reorganisation)

Two-tier council under English Local Government Reorganisation. Next election date awaiting Statutory Instrument.

Post-May 7 composition

Every party's seat count on the new council

Lib Dem

34

Conservative

5

Green Party

4

Independent / Other

2

Pre-May-7 composition is the latest OCD snapshot of who held each seat; post is pre minus seats up plus actual winners.

Local Government Reorganisation

Why we don't yet know when Winchester next votes

Winchester sits in a two-tier county area under review for Local Government Reorganisation following the English Devolution White Paper (December 2024). The county council and its districts are expected to be replaced by one or more new unitary authorities. Until the Statutory Instrument is laid, the next election date is not in our gift to guess.

We'll flip this page from TBC to a confirmed date the moment the SI publishes.

How accurate was the model here?

Our 7 May 2026 forecast for Winchester

13% 2 / 15 winners called correctly across this council's wards

9.01pp major-party MAE, average gap between predicted and actual share

+17.46pp Reform UK signed bias, positive = predicted hot, negative = predicted cold

Locked, sha256-witnessed forecast scored against the actual count. See the full national accuracy audit →

Our locked May 7 forecast

The pre-election prediction

Reform UK

9

Lib Dem

4

Green Party

1

Conservative

1

This is the seats-on-the-ballot projection we published before polls opened, used here for accuracy comparison only.

All wards

Per-ward forecast vs actual

Ward	Our top pick	Actual winner	Predicted share	Confidence
Alresford & Itchen Valley	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	34.8%	high
Badger Farm & Oliver's Battery	Reform UK	Lib Dem	34.0%	high
Bishop's Waltham	Reform UK	Lib Dem	34.5%	high
Central Meon Valley	Green Party	Green Party	35.3%	high
Colden Common & Twyford	Reform UK	Independent	34.5%	high
Denmead	Reform UK	Lib Dem	34.3%	high
Southwick & Wickham	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	36.6%	high
St Barnabas	Reform UK	Lib Dem	34.4%	high
St Bartholomew	Reform UK	Lib Dem	34.1%	high
St Michael	Reform UK	Lib Dem	34.0%	high
St Paul	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	34.3%	high
The Worthys	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	36.1%	high
Upper Meon Valley	Reform UK	Lib Dem	33.8%	high
Whiteley & Shedfield	Reform UK	Lib Dem	34.1%	high
Wonston & Micheldever	Conservative	Lib Dem	34.4%	high

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