Local council · Winchester
Colden Common & Twyford
1 seat contested on Thursday 7 May 2026. 5 candidates from 5 parties.
Neighbours shaded by Reform UK share vs this ward, red = higher, blue = lower.
Predicted vote share
What the model expects
Predictions are point estimates: the model's best guess, not a guarantee. The "How this prediction was made" section below lists every step that shaped this forecast.
How accurate was the model here?
Our 7 May 2026 forecast for Colden Common & Twyford
| Party | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 35.5% | 16.1% | +19.4pp |
| Labour | 6.8% | 1.8% | +5.0pp |
| Conservative | 28.1% | 10.3% | +17.8pp |
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full Winchester accuracy summary or the national audit.
Recent contests
What happened last time
| Date | Type | Winner | Top share | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-01 | By-election | Green Party | 40.2% | declaration |
| 2023-05-04 | Cycle | Lib Dem | 44.9% | declaration |
| 2022-05-05 | Cycle | Conservative and Unionist Party | 54.3% | declaration |
| 2019-05-02 | Cycle | Lib Dem | 48.3% | declaration |
| 2018-05-03 | Cycle | Conservative and Unionist Party | 48.9% | declaration |
Candidates 2026
Parties on the ballot
- Conservative and Unionist Party
- Independent
- Labour Party
- Lib Dem
- Reform UK
How this area looks demographically
Figures are for Winchester as a whole. The same local-authority figures are used for every ward in the council, finer ward-level demographics will land in a future release.
- White British (projected May 2026): 86.6% (Census 2021: 88.1%)
- Asian heritage (projected May 2026): 3.4% (Census 2021: 3.1%)
- Average area deprivation decile: 8.2 (1 = most deprived, 10 = least)
How this prediction was made
- Baseline . Most recent borough result (2025-05-01)
- BES MRP Prior . Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 south_east prior (weight 15%, n=5565 regional respondents)
- National Swing (STM) . Strong Transition Model: multiplicative bounded swing, dampened by 0.1 for local
- Demographics . 2 demographic factor(s) applied
- Incumbency . No current holder data available
- New Party Entry . Reform UK estimated at 3.4% from GE/LCC proxy + swing
- Normalise . All shares scaled to sum to 100%
- Restrict to ballot . Removed 4 party/parties not standing in 2026 (Green Party 34.9pp, Other 0.0pp, SNP 0.0pp, Plaid Cymru 0.0pp). Their share redistributed pro-rata.
- 2025 county-cycle anchor . No 2025 reference available for this council's parent area. Stage 1 uses national polling only.
- Reform realignment uplift (no-anchor councils) . No 2025 parent-county anchor available; demographic-borrow rule applied. Asian 3.4% → base target 36.0% × regional multiplier 0.85 = 30.6%. Reform 10.7% → 30.6% (lift +19.9pp). Other parties scaled pro-rata. Calibration source: Burnley 2026 ward-level Asian%↔Reform% relationship (the 2-tier district that did receive the LCC 2025 anchor).
- National-share calibration . Aggregate-predicted vs national-polled mismatch corrected at strength 0.65. Multipliers — Labour ×0.82, Conservative ×1.00, Reform UK ×1.15, Liberal Democrats ×0.96, Green Party ×1.12, SNP ×1.00, Plaid Cymru ×1.00.